The Canadian Conundrum

What I am going to attempt to do in this post is lay out the possible outcomes for Group C in the simplest and most straightforward way that I can which will likely result in everyone be confused and in that case the best thing to do is hope that Canada wins tonight as that will be enough to advance no matter what, got that down?  Good cause now we can get into the fun that such a stupid tournament format can create.  This whole best 2 third place teams moving on concept is just useless and for the first time in my life I found myself agreeing with a City fan last night while I was listening to Duane Rollins thoughts on the dumb format on last nights edition of Itscalledfootball (check out the podcast for some good stuff!)

So lets get down to the match and set out a couple of scenarios:

1.  If Canada wins the game, regardless of the margin, they advance but could finish anywhere from 1st to 3rd

2. If Canada losses, regardless of the margin, they are going home

3.  If Canada draws the game then they need to hope that the US losses their game against Guadeloupe

So that is the very basic outline of what can happen.  The scenarios get a lot more complex if you try to include all of the different outcomes from both of tonights games.  For example if Canada were to win by 4 or more then they would be able to claim top spot in the group and if they want a shot at second in the group then Canada needs to at least win by 2 so that they can go above Panama based on head to head.  I am not in the mood to hurt my brain trying to lay it all out for you when Duane of The 24th Minute has already done such a good job over here: http://www.canadiansoccernews.com/content.php?1831-Group-C-breakdown

The other thing that is worth knowing is that if Canada wins the game by less than 2 then they are heading to a quarterfinals date with Mexico.  So if you are hoping for Canada to avoid Mexico then a 2 goal win is the magic number.  To do that Canada is going to need a great effort as they are likely going to have to overcome a depleted back line, with only 3 out and out defenders left fit on the team, and likely the absence of Atiba Hutchinson for the second straight match as reports are suggesting that his club PSV are suggesting that it would be wise for Hart not to play him tonight.  If PSV really are saying that then we won't be seeing Atiba tonight since Hart will want to be careful not to burn bridges with them before World Cup qualifying begins as Hutchinson will be a key part of any success that Canada is going to have.