Brazil 2014 might seem like a long ways off but the fact of the matter is that 32 teams have already been eliminated from the running for qualifying. The teams already out include the likes of India, Philippines, Yemen, Palestine, Hong Kong, Laos, and Maldives. So they are not the traditional powers in the sport by any means which is why they had to take part in the earliest round of qualifying but as Grant Wahl pointed out the 32 teams already knocked out compromise 29% of the world's population. So for a quarter of the people living on planet earth the dream of making the World Cup ended before it ever really began.
For the other 175 nations that are competing for the 31 spots up for grabs in Brazil (the hosts have the 32nd spot already) the dream will begin in earnest today. So in case you did not know the World Cup qualifying draw is upon us and by the middle of the afternoon (EST) we will know the CONCACAF draw shakes out and that includes who Canada will take on in its opening round. So from here on in this post we will shift our focus to CONCACAF since that is all that matters in Canada's road to the World cup.
It really is not the easiest thing to try and explain the qualifying road and how the draw is going to shake out but I will do my best to try and highlight the basics. If you want some more info that is probably laid out better then I could do feel free to check out http://www.tropigol.com/2011/07/30/world-cup-qualifying-draw-procedure-for-concacaf-teams/
So CONCACAF has already had one round of play for the lowest ranked teams in the confederation. This round saw Belize, Dominican Republic, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Aruba and Bahamas all advance as winners. They will now join the next 19 teams in terms of rank in the second round of play. It is in this second round that Canada enters the fun and will be drawn in to a group with 3 other teams. As one of the higher ranked teams in this round of qualification Canada will be looking to get a favorable draw that will allow them to advance. For round 2 CONCACAF has the 24 teams drawn in to 6 groups of 4 teams each with one team coming from each of the pots, which are determined based on FIFA rankings. The winner of each group will advance to the third round where they will join the top 6 teams that have advanced straight to this stage. The second round matches will all take place in the fall.
So Canada gets involved in things before the confederations top teams and we will just have to hope that they do not mess up and actually make it to the third round. If they do they will be drawn into one of three groups of 4 from which the top two teams will advance. This is the point in qualification is going to be tough as some of the top teams will start getting knocked out. By the end of the third round there will only be 6 teams left. The round will again be drawn based on pots, they will again be based on FIFA rankings but this time based on the ones coming out in March as this round will not take place until the spring.
So assuming that your team is able to get past the third round by finishing in the top 2 of its group then you can really start to dream as making the World Cup as at least 3 of the final 6 teams will be going on to play in Brazil. For the final round there will be only one group and all 6 teams will be placed in it as they compete to finish in the top 3 spots and automatically advancing to Brazil. For the fourth placed team their fate will be decided by an intercontinental playoff while 5th and 6th place will have to join over 100 other countries dreaming of 2018.
So for Canada who start play in the second round the road is going to be a long one. They will have to win their group in the second round, come top 2 in the third round, and top 3 in the final round if they want to be playing in Brazil but one thing is clear to me now. Today is the kind of day where you just can't help but hope that some sort of miracle happens and come 2013 Canada will be in that final group. Just that would be a great achievement in my eyes as actually making the World Cup is still probably a distant dream. Just want to see them take a step forward and do well against teams that they should be doing well against.
The other big news leading in to World Cup qualifying is that Bob Bradley is out as the American head coach and has been replaced by Jürgen Klinsmann who was the clear favourite to land the job and will now almost certainly have more control then any of his predecessors. It was thought that the chances of Klinsmann taking over were becoming slim as he had a fair few differences with the US governing body as he wanted almost total control but someone must have caved for this hiring to be allowed to take place.
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